7.02.2006

midwest moisture independence weekend

The midwest has gotten spotty rains the weekend before the 4th... so far. This post is being written early Sunday and things could definitely change before the markets open tonight, but the radar looked "busy" last night and nothing really happened in most areas. It'll be interesting to see how the market factors the rain totals in. The market is building a base right now that plenty believe will not hold because growing conditions have been fantastic thus far, but my bias is that it'll only take two or three 6-10 day forecasts with hot, dry conditions to make this market retrace to levels not seen for a few weeks.

The rains during the week ending June 22 are said to have cushioned the corn crop condition ratings. If these ratings begin to decline then we may very well see some of the weather premium factored back into the market (possibly quickly).

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