weather market underway
Corn and beans are in the midst of a nice Sunday night rally before the holiday on Tuesday. Threats of dryness persisting in the midwest caused about 5c to be factored back into each market at the open. These are good markets to watch for a quick factoring in and out of weather premium. If a 6-10 day forecast comes up a little dry, look for a quick spike--on the flipside, a wet forecast would cause a large bit of that premium to be factored out... just as long as we get though pollination without too much crop stress.Other interesting markets right now:
- The daily and weekly feeder cattle charts show a market that is potentially overextended. The reopening of some key export markets might justify the strength, but I'm looking for another opportunity for a put strategy below the market.
- Weekly live cattle charts have had a steep ascent recently. There may also be an opportunity for a put strategy here.
- Lean hogs have had some recent strength. The weekly charts are key to watch in all three of these livestock/meat markets.
- Sugar may soon be poised as a value buy. A breakout to the upside would renew some strenth and there is plenty of room on the upside for a challenge of resistence.
- As always, the current weather market makes corns, beans, and wheat nice markets to enter and exit with limit and stop order strategies. Corn bulls are just itching to get back into the 270s and, possibly, 280s (dec contract)... who knows if they can get there.
Gold has recovered fairly quickly in recent trading sessions. The August contract is trading around $620/oz tonight and it's very thin trading (lower volume) compared to what it has seen in recent months. If trading volume picks up because of this recover, then the market has a chance of making a run at previous highs. It feels a little overextended on its most recent push higher.
posted by jared @ 6:30 PM
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