markets 11/8 corn, cattle, metals
It's been a while. I've been riding the existing positions I've had for quite some time. Gold was a solid trade a few weeks back on the downside. Shorting in the 648 zone for the dec 06 contract allowed the seller to buy in the 560s or 570s for a nice return. This morning, gold appears to be breaking down some of the recent strength that propelled it back to 630+ levels for a short time. Currently, we're right around 620 and there is a risk of slipping through support levels and heading back to retest 600.Grains haven't really looked back. Initiated long corn positions have continued to do well. Purchased protective puts are eroding in value. May roll up those strikes a few levels higher with the premiums being reduced due to strength.
Cattle have broken down, but my distance from looking at the technicals in recent weeks has kept me out of that move.
As a sidenote, beans and corn have been nearly vertical markets for quite some time. Usually, this isn't sustainable for extended periods of time, and both markets are overdue for a corrective setback; however, that doesn't necessarily have to happen (a) at all, or (b) before a final blow off that reaches 20-30c higher.
Current strategy is to hold longs with trailing stops and roll up protective puts to higher strikes. Watch for followthrough strength from 11/7 overnight 4.5c move higher in corn. Target is 370+ price zone. Consider "stepping in front of the corn frieght train" and shorting if any confirmed weakness unfolds.
posted by jared @ 4:45 AM
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