wild evening trade july 4, 2006
The overnight session started off very strong, then fizzled out to close even after getting as low as 265 and change for the December contract of corn. The market is gearing up with expectations of building in some more weather premium, which may in fact occur, but look out for how quickly that premium will evaporate with moisture to the dry areas of the belt. This is a "second chance" on some put options below the market. The strength in the last couple of trading sessions has made these options more affordable. It all depends on where you see value.Gold market didn't pay too much attention to the North Korea missle news. It seems like many of the markets already have so much "global terror" premium built in that it takes quite a bit to excite price movement beyond minor premium additions. That's not to say that gold won't make a run for previous highs, but it's overbought and due for a correction to the downside. Any downside correction may provide a nice value buy for call options over 700 in strike.
Beans have seen a lot of movement lately, but with their key window coming up in a few weeks this is likely only the beginning of the show.
Live cattle and feeders seem to be correcting. These markets could flash more sell signals in the coming sessions. Mild temperatures in the midwest for the next few days should limit the craziness in the grain pits, but lookout if the extended forecast turns hot and dry.
posted by jared @ 4:43 AM
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