Top movies
So since this isn't really intended for viewing by other people, I thought why not use it for a repository for myself? Then, in the even that I want to share some of the info with others, I can do just that.
I was thinking over the weekend about my favorite films. For some reason this topic has been coming up in my mind with increasing frequency so I feel compelled to distill some of those thoughts here.
- Donnie Darko: This film rocks. It's unique, quirky, smart, and has a great message.
- Fight Club
- Pi
- Bourne series
- Superbad
random notes 12/23
A couple of interesting sites.
- Jawbone the wireless headset technology they will have available in January looks promising.
- ilike music site mentioned in the WSJ
Watching for followthrough strength with KBR. About four weeks of holding has yielded about 27% return.
markets 12/21
I'm looking for an opportunity in soy oil. The corn market is poised for a downside correction. Long-term friendly beans with a slant for buying nov-07 if corn has a retracement beyond 350 basis mar-07.
Gold has been weak but there may very well be good support just above 600 on the nearby, which makes for a reasonable buying opportunity targetting 660ish.
Sugar strength may be short-lived above 12c.
general commentary 12/17
Interesting article explaining the basics of the stock options backdating hoopla.
Currently reading or browsing:
- God Created the Integers by Hawking
- Investing for Dummies (fill in those gaping holes of knowledge about the basics)
- WSJ Personal Finance Guidebook
- The World is Flat by Friedman
The Google finance page has been updated to include some additional features for portfolio-watching. Strength continues in the general market. Will Chinese currency eventually float? Has housing market bottomed or do we have a little further to go?
markets 12/5
The grains are correcting to the downside with some analysts targeting the 350s for March corn. Tuesday's action could be important in telling how much buying will arrive with these minor corrections. If the weakness is limited to Monday's decline then we could see a fairly quick recovery. The low-370 is steep uptrending support, but did not hold all that well in the evening session. Tuesday could be the day for a sharp sell-off but beware if large scale buyers emerge.
Pfizer may struggle in the near-term with the negativity currently associated with their pipeline, but there is reason to believe there may be value in this behemoth.
links (working list)
Bob Bruss real estate info
http://www.bobbruss.com/
markets 11/29
Looks like Pfizer is
cutting 20% of its sales force.
The pharma industry as a whole may well take a hit soon with new government leadership threatening to change the way medicare drug benefits are negotiated and carried out. Interesting article in the WSJ a couple of weeks ago pointed out that this may in fact actually lead to an overall increase in drug prices (op-ed section I believe).
Blockbuster has it's new Netflix-competing service available now that may end up being a better alternative to the mail-service pioneer. We shall see.
commodity markets
corn is still rediculously strong. Same with beans and right now there is no end in sight; however, last night 11/28, the corn market did close right on near-term sharp uptrending support, so Wednesday's action may prove corrective in nature if this support level is violated (378 for mar-07 corn).
gold seems to have some underlying strength. Looking ahead to Feb '07 gold shows that 650 is a key barrier. Surpassing it could give further strength to the bullish run.
grains 11/19
The grains are awfully interesting right now. Here's a note from an email conversation.
Looking ahead at March '07 corn, it seems like the chart is at a resting point or "pause" as Ring sometimes says. You can make an argument that it's poised to go higher or that we're in the midst of a topping process. Check out the attached chart for yourself. My bias is that a short position with a stop above the contract high at 381.75 is a relatively safe play considering how well you can limit your exposure. Despite recent strength in the last couple of sessions (tonight we're at 379), the market still has to prove itself on the upside. If it doesn't knock out that previous high, then the fall from grace could be sharp. As we've also spoke about before, traders are just waiting to buy this market so the downside magnitude seems very limited but, nevertheless, there is an area around 350 that looks to be a likely target on a corrective pullback.
If this strategy is completely off on timing, then your risk is only a few cents per contract. The exaggerated moves in the evenings are on low volume; so tonight's 8-9c move higher on thin activity may or may not be reflected in the "real deal trading" tomorrow. That may be a good time to enter if strength doesn't push march to new contract highs.
Chart is from ProphetX and shows the steep uptrend in March '07 corn as well as the ceiling imposed by the contract high. Early this week of 11/19 we could see that ceiling blown off or tested and hold.
Beans will keep rallying with corn to avoid losing too many acres. The short side of beans can be played based on the corn argument just made and might even offer better risk parameters. The only cautionary note is that beans can potentially whip you around even more than corn, so thresholds for stop loss orders need to be clearly defined (as always) from the beginning.
markets 11/9 usda production report
The USDA numbers appear bullish this morning.
Crop Production:
- Beans 3.204 bln. bu. (avg. est. 3.24 bln. bu.)
- Corn 10.745 bln. bu. (avg. est. 10.838 bln. bu.)
Carryout:
- Beans .565 bln. bu. (avg. est. .583 bln. bu.)
- Corn .935 bln. bu. (avg. est. .912 bln. bu.)
The lower than expected production on corn should be enough to ignite a frenzy of buying with beans and wheat bidding up prices in acreage competition.
Gold has recovered somewhat from its down move on Wednesday, but it still appears weak overall.
markets 11/8 corn, cattle, metals
It's been a while. I've been riding the existing positions I've had for quite some time. Gold was a solid trade a few weeks back on the downside. Shorting in the 648 zone for the dec 06 contract allowed the seller to buy in the 560s or 570s for a nice return. This morning, gold appears to be breaking down some of the recent strength that propelled it back to 630+ levels for a short time. Currently, we're right around 620 and there is a risk of slipping through support levels and heading back to retest 600.
Grains haven't really looked back. Initiated long corn positions have continued to do well. Purchased protective puts are eroding in value. May roll up those strikes a few levels higher with the premiums being reduced due to strength.
Cattle have broken down, but my distance from looking at the technicals in recent weeks has kept me out of that move.
As a sidenote, beans and corn have been nearly vertical markets for quite some time. Usually, this isn't sustainable for extended periods of time, and both markets are overdue for a corrective setback; however, that doesn't necessarily have to happen (a) at all, or (b) before a final blow off that reaches 20-30c higher.
Current strategy is to hold longs with trailing stops and roll up protective puts to higher strikes. Watch for followthrough strength from 11/7 overnight 4.5c move higher in corn. Target is 370+ price zone. Consider "stepping in front of the corn frieght train" and shorting if any confirmed weakness unfolds.
market snapshot preopen 10/09
OJ had a downside breakout Friday with the slide open for quite a ways. The following chart shows support levels that could be challenged if the selling pressure continues. (Charts from ProphetX).
There has been some noise in the cattle markets. Looking at the intermediate term and shorter term trends reveals that the shorter term may have renewal power.
The grains were stronger (again) in overnight trade with corn up nearly 4c and beans up 1c. Strength in the coming week in either or both of these markets could be indicative of a surge of buying that could drive prices significantly higher. I have a bias that beans have a much higher potential for sliding than corn. Of course wheat is leading the grain complex and strength there has been staggering. If corn were to slide, then a likely target would be 252. If beans slide, the target may well be 537 basis NOV. Judging from the strength of the overnight session, there is at least a chance that the tone set on Monday could be one indicative of further strength. If weakness occurs (DEC corn below 270, beans below 560) then the slide could come to pass.
Sit back and watch.
markets 10/6
Gold has been weaker after breaking through support in the 600, 586, 580, and 576 areas. We could be at a "breather" point before a plunge even (much) lower
or this could be a market finding it's intermediate-term bottom. I'm leaning towards continued weakness (barring some geopolitical event of significance) because the chart is getting weaker by the day.
Corn is incredibly strong. I'm not convinced that this is a push that will get us to 296, 298, and 300 on the DEC chart. There is potential for corn to fall flat on its face - and fast. Weakness could develop as soon as Friday and continue into the report next Thursday. If strength persists, and the market can make a strong Friday close then the chart action from July and June may soon be challenged.
Beans have also been rediculously strong. This is a market that is begging me to go short, but I really struggle with stepping in front of a frieght train (especially one that can move 50c per day). I think the real potential exists for this market to be gasping for its last breath of bull air. Seasonal and fundamental factors are nagging at the bulls. I believe they'll soon have to cave. If this
doesn't happen, then there is something more underlying this market. Right now it seems like price action is producing a noisy chart.
The cattle complex hasn't been terribly exciting lately. The charts for live and feeders look like they want to move higher, but I think the meltdown in crude and metals and the reinvigoration of the grains (probably linked by a coefficient much higher than most estimate) are intimately related.
gold and grains 9/28
Gold had a possibly significant break out from a trading range by following through in the 606+ area for the Dec contract. In the overnight, gold surpassed 610, but has since subsided. If the momentum on the upside does not result in a push higher than where we are now, there could be slippage back to the 600 level and a plunge to challenge 580, 576, and 560 could be upon us. It all seems to depend on the swiftness of the decline. A slow drift might perpetuate the relatively meaningless movement we've seen recently - without any significant motivators for rallies or declines besides the technical heard.
Watching 606, 600, 580, 576, and 560. Low targets are conceivable but absolutely not a given.
The grains were weaker in trade Wednesday. Overnight they were a little stronger, but only gave back a portion of the gains from Wednesday. Seasonaility points to the potential for a slide to begin very soon. This may be more true for beans than corn. Everyone and their brother is clammoring about demand for corn and the ethanol craze etc. With beans, we seem to have an abundance and the question mark that remains is how South America will react acreage-wise to our price levels. Don't forget the rediculous state of their economy with interest rates through the roof.
If corn can continue with earlier strength to get through the 260 area basis Dec then we could see follow-through into the mid to high 260s. If, however, the current failure (down 5c on Wednesday) is perpetuated by declines into the 248-252 range then we could see a challenge to the 240 area. Despite what the demand bulls will tell you, even that 233.50 contract low would be within striking distance. If yields are relatively strong going forward, then the premium that was quickly factored into this market will be removed even more swiftly.
Sugar may have bottomed for the shorter term, with some strength returning in the last couple of trading days. Longer-term this thing could easily reach down into the 8-9c area.
Cattle is a difficult mix right now. The expected bearish report from Friday 9/22 hit the market with expectations having already been factored in. More analysis on this market is required to make an intermediate term call.
grains and crude 9/21
The grains moved higher Thursday, which may have been led largely by the belief that a low has been posted along with continued strong demand. Given the time of year, though, these gaps up may present selling opportunities in front of harvest pressure
Crude has been steadly eroding with the end of the driving season along with bearish reserve info. It may soon be overdone on the downside and it only takes one geopolitical event/non-event to reignite the fire, so to speak. The chart below shows recent weakness. Participation using the eminiNY may be the safest approach.
Chart is from ProphetX.
gold 9/10
It looks like the evening Chicago trade has broken through the key 615 barrier I've been watching. Friday's trade pierced it by trading as low as 613.50, but closed at 617.30, nearly $4 higher than the low. With evening trade currently in the 606.50 area, all the market needs is a close below 615.00 to continue the bearish enthusiasm. The daily chart shows a downside objective of 559.30 for the December contract on eCBOT. (Note: both charts are from ProphetX)
The weekly chart has a near-term bearish target in the 576 ballpark.
The recent thrust downward has been intense, so we may see the market take a breath in the near term. Psychological support at 600 may play a key role in determining whether the move has the stamina to get to the 580 or even 560 area.
real estate and commodity update 9/8
An article about the real estate market as it relates to student housing.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14041818/from/ETgold
Gold finished much lower wrapping up at 617.3 basis Dec after trading as low as 613.5. There could be some renewed upside if the lower part of this range around 615.00 holds (range noted in earlier post). From a swing trade perspective, this market could take a breather and not go directly after the challenge of support, but instead languish over the short term with little meaningful movement --
noise as I like to call it. A brief reprieve from the recent slide would increase the likelihood of a continued slide.
cornAgain this market didn't have a whole lot to say on Friday. Positioning in front of the USDA report is oftentimes a whipsawing type of event with movements between support and resistence levels. You can almost bet that we'll be sitting right on top of one of these levels going into the report.
feeder cattleThe chart for feeders closed just below the old resistance level (before the most recent week), which could be a sign of near-term weakness if the market corrects to the downside. This is an entirely possible scenerio given the magnitude of it's recent strength to push to new contract highs. (Note: chart is from ProphetX)
sugar
This market was stronger Friday but closed below 12c. The chart
shows that the sharp downtrend has not been negated, but the market is above the gap left in Nov-05. The pause below the downtrend still puts the burdon on the bulls to overcome that obstacle. Friday they couldn't get it done but next week's action could be important in determining whether we're pausing in the bigger downward thrust or if the majority the bearishness has been factored in. (Chart is from ProphetX)
cotton
The downtrend has accellerated and the market may target the contract low at 51.20. At the least, the more gradual downtrends will be challenging to reverse.
gold, grains, sugar 9/8
goldThe chart for dec gold shows an intermediate downtrend that is intact. Clearing through the 615 area on the downside should open things up a bit, but confirmation will be needed. More downside potential exists.
grainsCorn is mostly messing around right now without much meaning to the direction. The market will likely position itself ahead of the report at a support level due to the anticipation of bearish numbers, but there will be more significance for the October report when a higher percentage is harvested.
sugarThe chart may test the 11c area soon. The current pauses in the mid-11c area lend some credibility to the argument of an eventual thrust downward.
live cattle, cotton, corn 9/4
live cattleThe live cattle chart looks strong with the longer-term uptrend well intact and the shorter-term, very steep uptrend also holding it's ground. It wouldn't be surprising to see the longer-term trend tested at some point in the near future. The bottom of the renewed steep uptrend is at 90.60 and 90.00 looks to be the key area for the longer-term trend.
cotton
The downtrend in cotton is intact since January. The market looks poised to test flat support in the 51c area.
cornThe parabolic function turned to buy in late August. The chart still favors the bears but a test of 248 to 252 area seems likely in the near term. The market has not let go of the bullishness and this mentality given the fundamentals cannot be ignored.
goldThe gold market may have a recovery into the 640s and breaking back above the 650 barrier would renew some bullishness. The approximate downtrend since May will be violated with continued upside movement in the upper 640s. Flat resistence rests at 668.20 and 691.20.
A six month view of the dec gold chart effectively zooms in on the area of interest and shows the the downtrend from May was closed on or just above with action Friday, September 1. If the market fails on the upside as it stretches for 650, the downside could be significant, while the upside movers would next target the flat support previously noted at 668.20
if the violation of the trend is confirmed.
gold 8/28
goldThe downtrend is holding. A shorting opportunity may exist in the mid-640s with buy-back stop placement just above 650. The market closed weak on Monday, August 28. Weakness may persist, but a bump higher could present an opportunity.
coffee 8/27
coffeeThe strength in coffee has held the uptrending line. Looking at the December chart shows that support may soon be tested and, if it holds, the follow-through strength will be important to watch.
With flat support for the contract resting at 98.00, the market has a lot of breathing room. Looking at the stochastics, we are borderline overbought and due for a correction, which makes watching any test of support even more important for emergent buying.
market thoughts 8/26
grainsLooking ahead at the upcoming week, I'm thinking about the yield prospects for corn and beans. Those prospects have likely improved significantly as of late, especially in the case of beans. Taking a step back from the near term price fluctuations--it truly is amazing to see where these markets have churned in recent months.
If corn has bottomed, then we could see an interesting dynamic begin to take shape with the longer-term bullishness returning sooner rather than later. The market could also languish or have a hard push lower. The Monday afternoon crop condition reports have been showing an improving crop condition rating for corn in all of the key states. This points to excellent yield potential and possibly much lower prices. There is reluctance for the market to stay down for very long at all. Some analysts are hopelessly attached (in love with) the position of being long corn because of the ethanol craze. The market looks ahead.
If the USDA turns out to have been low in their Aug-11 report then the market could have a longer-term bullish premium built back in over time as the demand keeps chewing through supplies. The market has reserved the right to break through on the downside as well, so this one could be tough to play. Technical indicators and general feeling about where the market psychology will take us is begging me to re-establish a fairly sizable bought position. Confirmation of strength in the coming week will offer some reassurance to me that the 238.50 resistance level breakthrough was significant intermediate to longer term. If the market is just playing around in the 240 area throughout the week without any noteworthy strength back in the mid-240 area then we could have a lull for the time being.
sugarA little strength but no followthrough buying emerged, so we could see some more weakness. The chart is telling me to wait on the short position to unfold further. There is still a target in the 11c area.
cattle
The strength that bulls were looking for was hit and miss this week. With the October feeder contract down to 116.70 just the other day, there is potential to just play around in the earlier defined trading range.
Technically, the case is reasonably strong for cattle to continue with their uptrend. Fundamentally, it feels like they've been overdone at this point. As noted before, be careful for a sudden burst of strength that comes out of nowhere. The uptrend from April-06 is intact dispite a intra-day spike.
trading sidenote "let your winners ride"
The positions that are winners are the hardest to hold on to because there is a natural impulse to book profits. While some argue that booking any profit is a good thing, oftentimes a trader can prematurely exit a trade without a sound reason for the exit. Just as is the case when an entry point, a trader needs an exit strategy... and the trader needs to follow that plan.
Entering a market when resistance or support holds and placing an exit stop just above or below that line has worked well in the past, but setting a
somewhat arbitrary stop behind the market doesn't make a lot of sense because market "noise" will oftentimes knock you out of a position that would have been much more profitable with a more scientific approach to stop placement. Watch for support and resistance stop setting locations and don't cheat yourself by putting the blinders on just to book a profit. It'll pay off over time.... this is a hard one.
feeder cattle notes 8/22
feeder cattleThis market is toying with the high with flat resistance at 118.25. Today it closed down after Monday's impressive strength. If this market can overcome the nearby hurdle on the upside, then there's no telling how far it could ascend, but, on the flipside, we're overextended and the probability exists for a hefty setback. The danger of shorting a market like feeders right now is there is no chart precedent for a resistance level above the recent highs. If 118.25 is overtaken, then any buy-back stop (covering a short) would likely be hit. Again, markets like this can be vacuous in nature.
- Some markets start to feel like a reckoning day is near and this may prove to be an example.
- The picture is reasonably bearish for the current price levels to be maintained. The talk is centered around regaining export demand and continued strength in the domestic market. Any faltering with these variables would likely result in at least a sign of that reckoning.
- From the technical perspective, the intermediate-term uptrend is intact but the overhead resistance is substantial.
- One could make an argument for initiating a short position to play the probability of at least a minor correction to the intermediate-term uptrending line. Bearish fundamental news could precipitate a breach of the uptrend and cause a significant tumble thereafter.
sugarThe October contract is hovering in the 12c area and could soon break through that key barrier. If it does then the vacuous area (noted in previous posts) could provide a hard and fast dive to wrap up this retracement. Be patient for this one to break through 12c. My short position is a few weeks hold and it's definitely paid to only update stop placement using significant resistance areas.
A habit I've been reasonably successful of moving away from is becoming very comfortable with a profit because I feel that a market has been "generous" to me and thus setting my profit-protecting stop closer than the chart tells me to. This unnecessarily limits profits--though some would argue that is allows for the trader to "give back" too much of the original profits I have actually found results to be much to the contrary. Using this stop placement method
with the right markets has allowed me to catch the last and often best thrust of a move.
The reason I say "the right markets" is because there are absolutely certain markets in which this methodology is just asking for repeated setbacks. Swing trades often require a very defensive posture to protect accumulated profits from the trading channel. Positional trades require patience and commitment to the support and resistance levels. Different tools for different markets.
It, again, boils down to planning your trades and trading your plans.
sugar 8/21
The sugar market has fallen hard and fast lately. The rock-bottom area of support is in the 11c ballpark, but there are no guarantees the market can make it that far. I'm becoming increasingly defensive of this position because of the possibility for a hard and sharp recovery. Even if that bounce doesn't stick, my preference is to have a clean exit before hand and possibly re-enter on the short side. Some people would argue that I should stick to stop-setting in the upside resistance levels, but a trade with this accelleration and velocity potential is beginning to come up and gasp for air at some point. My trailing buy stop will be close behind market action.
corn and cattle 8/20
cattleThe cattle on feed came out at 107% of year ago levels which will likely spur selling on Monday's market open. I took profits on Friday ahead of the report on a short position. The reaction to this report is important. If there are indeed losses on Monday following the bearish number, then follow-through losses until midweek would confirm an intermediate-term shift in sentiment. The market had been in the high 92 levels for the October LC contract.
The October contract may head back down to the uptrending support line in the near term as the market figures out how to digest the variables in play.
cornI'm beginning to shift some of my study focus to the March '07 contract for corn and I may even look forward to the further out contract months. Reason being that the longer-term bullish sentiment is still intact but the Dec contract may not be the right time horizon to realize the best part of the continuation of the bullish pattern.
Although the March '07 contract has broken the longer-term uptrending line, the flat support level in the 245.25 area may prove a little tougher to break. The market is nearing a nice entry point possibility for a longer-term positional trade in corn. As noted, the demand picture is still very bullish the resumption of that sentiment will likely happen after most of the market is convinced that lows are in place and there could be quite a spectacular recovery.
That line of thinking has to be tempered by keeping the thought in mind that "big crops tend to get bigger" and the bearish USDA numbers released on Aug-11 may only be the beginning of a bearish break in this market.
With that said, longer-standing support lines make the buying opportunity relatively low in risk given the upside price potential. Another adage to remember in times like these is that
markets are most bearish at the bottom. We'll see how it plays out, but positioning with at least some cheap calls should be a reasonably conservative trade. This market's action early in the week will be important as traders attempt to find out what kinds of lows were posted last week.
usda crop progress report
cornThe corn market moved lower (at time much lower) on Monday. But the last 15-20 minutes of trading were again intense. The market dipped into the low 230s for the Dec contract only to rebound and close at 238.50. Though there was a jab below support in the 237 area, the close was in fact above support. This could prove important in coming days. Though, tonight (aug-14) corn will likely feel more pressure because the USDA's weekly crop progress report came out and showed that good/excellent ratings for the crop were unchanged from last week. However, and perhaps more importantly, the "good" category for Iowa increased from 41% to 45%. This may prove significant in tonight's market action. Be wary of this area... fresh contract lows during the day session leave the possibility open for a hard and fast fall should the funds roll over and liquidate. The massive longs the funds are holding could make this vacuous.
cattleThe cattle market was initially higher then closed lower for the day. October live cattle closed below 92.00 at 91.80, which may be significant in coming days. There has been a strong and fast run-up in the cattle complex and anything that moves with that kind of intensity often has a reckoning day.
sugarSugar was again down hard Monday. The October contract closed at 12.50. This has been one of those rare instances were I actually caught a large portion of the downward move.
Observations about this:
- I was initially long and stopped out a couple of weeks back.
- Re-evaluating the chart and the shelf of support in the 14c area, I decided to reverse the position and ride the fresh momentum to the downside.
- The chart broke through 14c then 13c, and now we're in the mid 12c area.
- Looking at the daily chart shows that this may be another vacuous zone where there is not a definitive support area. Take a somewhat defenisive posture to retain most of the profits achieved at this point, but be aware of the "nowhere-land" that exists on the way down to 10.92. Bears are no-doubt targetting this region.
Looking at the longer-term chart, the 11/10/2006 price of 10.92 at the bottom of the long rally eventually got us to 18.35, which is a differential of 7.43. We're currently at 12.50, which is a differential from the high of 5.85. The differential 5.85 (=18.35-12.50) represents a 79% retracement of the bull run. Granted it hasn't happened all at once, but the supply/demand factors for the upcoming surplus year perpetuated the placement of the straw that broke the camel's back.
wheat notes 8/13
Wheat broke an 8-month support line on Friday. Intermediate to longer-term action may be directed at testing 2-3 key flat support areas (blue lines). If support holds, then wheat may have solid footing going forward.
This second chart is from the FAST trading platform. It shows the 5-minute chart from eCBOT trading 8/13 to the morning of 8/14.
sugar, corn, and gold sunday, aug 13
Looking at the corn chart, it seems possible that trade could break through support in the 237.75 area--though it doesn't seem terribly likely at this point. Evening trade tonight 8/13 has been as low as 237.25, but it quickly rebounded. The early part of the coming week may be telling of the intermediate-term direction of this market. Friday's high per acre yield estimate caused the trade to factor out about 14c from the market. With the demand factors still in place for corn, there could be a nice buying opportunity coming up. This price for corn coupled with the weakness of the dollar makes the US corn a value buy for many other markets in need of corn. Ours is cheap right now.
The sugar market may hit a vacuum soon with not a lot of chart barriers between close on Friday in the mid-13c range and 11c. Of course, nothing goes straight up or straight down for long. This has been a weak one lately and I'm going to hang on to the short for the time being.
Gold is weaker tonight, likely because of the peacekeeping action announced by the UN that is slated for Monday. This market has been churning for some time now. It's lack strength on some pretty turbulent news could be indicative of underlying short to intermediate term weakness. We've seen about $25 taken out of the market recently. It could only be the beginning of a larger dip, or the bottom end of the trading channel. As they say, bull markets need fed.
December 240 corn puts may have some strength early in the week. I don't want to let these diminish from the recent highs because they could churn back to semi-neutral territory if the corn market revives somewhat. Be active with these Monday and Tuesday for possible exit strategy.
Gold calls may be a value buy early in the week. Watch the wide trading range carefully.
December coffee is resting on the upward sloping trendline. If it doesn't hold, then the contract could slip into the 105 neighborhood. Stochastics show a market on the verge of being overbought--perhaps the trade is feeling a shaky foundation of support. If support holds, then the move has potential to be quite strong.
post usda aug-11 report
The trading day was volatile. Corn was down hard, beans were modestly down on somewhat bearish news. As many analysts say, "it's not the news that's important, it's how the market
reacts to the news." Definitely a lot of truth in that statement.
Gold has been all over the map lately and closed at the bottom of a 20-25 dollar trading range. Live and feeder cattle have extended the dramatic gains from this week and are now overbought.
Weekend research:
- cattle puts to leverage for seasonal downtrend to emerge
- possible liquidation of 240 dec corn puts
- gold calls - is there value here
- coffee near-term potential
- sugar - downside soon overextended?
- wheat weakness opportunity?
usda report data
The report looks bearish corn and slightly friendly to beans.
152.2 bu/acre yield for corn and 39.6 bu/acre for beans
Now we get to see how it plays out.
pre-report notes
cornLooking at the data from the weekly crop progress report shows that a higher-percentage of the US crop is rated at good to excellent. I took the data and created a G/EX data column that is the summation of good and excellent percentages and then I did a descending sort to see how the states lined up. Note: the data source is the weekly crop condition report from the USDA.
Things are looking good. Friday morning's demand and yield projection numbers could be market movers. If demand is high or projected yield is lower than expected, then we could see a bump up. If production estimates are higher than expected then there might be some "elation" and wind may fall from the sails. As previously noted, the 248-252 area has been key. Intermediate term direction from this area may be determined with report data.
live cattle
Live cattle blasted through resistance Thursday. The acceleration of the move is intense and even the steeper uptrending line looks slow in comparison. The market is overbought and may be facing a correction in the near term.
